Brexit may not happen.

Gideon Rachman in The Financial Times on why Brexit may not happen.

And what kind of new concession should be offered? That is easy. What Mr Johnson would need to win a second referendum is an emergency brake on free movement of people, allowing the UK to limit the number of EU nationals moving to Britain if it has surged beyond a certain level.

In retrospect, it was a big mistake on the part of the EU not to give Mr Cameron exactly this concession in his renegotiation of the UK’s terms of membership early this year. It was the prime minister’s inability to promise that Britain could set an upper limit on immigration that probably ultimately lost him the vote.

Sounds logical to me.

Flogging passports

The FT’s Tim Harford takes on the cost of EU citizenship.

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I hardly think that €650,000 cheapens the EU passport. For the typical British citizen, the message Malta is sending is that the passport in your pocket is worth more than your house and your pension pot put together. Which may not be far wrong: take a typical UK citizen, dump her in Calcutta or Dar es Salaam and see how she gets on. EU citizenship is more valuable than most EU citizens realise.

Hot PMI!

The hottest country in Europe for PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) in July is…
Ireland

What is PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) anyway? According to Investopedia:

PMI is a very important sentiment reading, not only for manufacturing, but also the economy as a whole. Although U.S. manufacturing is not the huge component of total gross domestic product (GDP) that it once was, this industry is still where recessions tend to begin and end. For this reason, the PMI is very closely watched, setting the tone for the upcoming month and other indicator releases.

The magic number for the PMI is 50. A reading of 50 or higher generally indicates that the industry is expanding. If manufacturing is expanding, the general economy should be doing likewise. As such, it is considered a good indicator of future GDP levels. Many economists will adjust their GDP estimates after reading the PMI report.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/napm.asp#ixzz22ITKRJ8s

Why buying shares in Manchester United doesn’t make sense

Analysis from the financial side in the Guardian.

Among the many reasons not to buy shares in Manchester United in the forthcoming flotation on the New York Stock Exchange are the pure, cold financial numbers. The updated prospectus shows what happens when the team flops in the Champions League: ignoring a one-off tax credit, the club will report a small operating loss from continuing operations for the 12 months to June this year; and revenues will be about 4% lower than the previous year at £315m-£320m.

Yet the Glazers hope buyers can be found for Man Utd at a price tag of almost $3bn (£1.9bn). Six times revenues! That’s a rating associated with go-go technology stocks where income doubles every couple of years. At Man United, despite the Glazer camp’s boasts about greater commercial adventure and bigger sponsorship deals, revenues have advanced by a grand total of 14% over the course of the past three years.